Special weather to usher out 2016

A "SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT" has just been released for our general area (including Eastern Hampshire County/Amherst) for snow starting later this evening between 7-10 pm and tapering off between 1-4 am. This is not the forecast one generally wishes for on New Year's Eve. Lower elevations (like here) may get a snow-rain mix at the beginning. Expect a coating of snow to 2 inches, more at higher elevations. In addition to the usual hazards of New Year's Eve travel, add slippery roads to the mix. Enjoy your evening, everyone - and stay safe out there.

Something (snow) stormy this way comes!

A WINTER STORM WATCH has now been posted for Amherst - and really all of Western and Northern Massachusetts - beginning Thursday morning, December 29, through Friday morning. If that sounds like a long period, you are correct. Computer models have converged around the fact that this is likely to be a significant snowstorm, but they are less decisive on timing. Somewhere between 4-8 inches of heavy, wet snow is currently forecast, with a high likelihood of at least 6 inches around here. Models currently have the snow starting up on Thursday morning, intensifying Thursday afternoon and early night. It all should taper off after midnight on Thursday. Expect hazardous driving conditions and poor visibility -- and increasing accuracy with respect to amounts and timing as we go through Wednesday.

December 26 Freezing Rain Advisory

Black Ice Driveway
(see how deceptive black ice can be?)
Photo by S. Vardatira, Amherst MA

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY has been issued for 3-11 pm Monday, December 26, the first day of Kwanzaa, Boxing Day, third night of Chanukah, and generally busy shopping day around these parts. Location of the advisory includes Western and Central Massachusetts, encompassing Hampshire County and the surrounding areas. A few hundredths of an inch of light freezing rain is forecast, possibly with sleet mixed in. Although patches of light freezing rain may break out mid-afternoon Monday, it is more likely to occur early Monday evening. The main impact will be a light coating of ice on untreated roadways and sidewalks, which can be dangerous for anyone out and about at that time. Slow down and use caution while driving. Better yet, finish up early and spend the evening playing board games, lighting candles (if that's your tradition), or reading a good book. After about 11 pm, temperatures will have warmed to above freezing. And Tuesday will dawn soon after.

Interstellar Christmas Tree

This photo of the Christmas Tree Cluster was taken with the Wide Field Imager at ESO’s La Silla Observatory, 2400m high in the Atacama Desert of Chile in the foothills of the Andes. The image shows a region of space about 30 light-years across.

Just as weather clouds breed rain, molecular clouds breed stars. They are a form of interstellar cloud, and this one in the Monoceros constellation is known as the "Christmas Tree Cluster." It has a triangular arrangement of stars that is shaped like a Christmas tree, and it was so nicknamed by amateur astronomers who noticed the resemblance. Buried within the constellation is a compact group of red protostars. These newborns, swaddled in the surrounding molecular cloud, form the pattern of a snowflake. Perhaps not surprisingly, astronomers have nicknamed this part of the Christmas Tree Cluster, the "Snowflake Cluster." (Posting courtesy of the Cloud Appreciation Society)

Merry Christmas to all who are celebrating today from Head in the Clouds Amherst!

The Icing Cometh

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is now in effect from 1 AM to 3 PM Saturday for Franklin, Hampshire, and Hampden Counties (as well as parts of Central and Eastern Massachusetts, Northern Connecticut and Northwest Rhode Island). Locally we are expected to get 3-6 inches of snow and up to one tenth of an inch of ice. With temperatures this cold right now, it stands to reason that we can’t go from a major snow event to all rain without some icing in the middle. Freezing rain and ice accretion is nothing to mess around with – best to hunker down and ride this one out.

If you don't like the weather, wait a minute

Hadley Farms in Snow - Photo by S. Vardatira

The next 48 hours looks to typify that saying, "If you don't like the weather in New England, just wait a few minutes." (Attributed to Mark Twain)

We had sub-zero temperatures earlier this morning, followed by high pressure building over the region during the today, which will diminish the wind as the day progresses. The high quickly moves off to the east tonight, making way for a warm front to bring approximately 3-5 inches of snow to our local area late tonight and Saturday morning (higher amounts at higher elevations). The warming air should then change the snow to rain during the day on Saturday. Rain continues through Sunday, with the warming trend continuing along with blustery southerly winds. A shot of Arctic air then moves in Sunday night into Monday, followed by a warm front which will usher in more seasonable conditions for most of next week.

And, of course, what would the holidays be without the chance of a "late-week" storm right before Christmas? But there's still a lot of uncertainty about that, so no need to panic yet. And in the meantime, don your best "New Englander" identity and enjoy our weekend weather roller coaster ride. 

Freezing rain and sleet

High likelihood of freezing rain and sleet Monday morning. Especially as the temperature is hovering just around 31 degrees at midnight Sunday. In other words, check your driveway before you step out on it.

First "plowable snow" storm of the season arrives tonight

First storm of the season, 2011 - Amherst, MA
Photo by S. Vardatira

Yes! Snow coming!

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is in effect for our area from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM Monday afternoon for much of Southern New England, including Eastern Hampshire County and Amherst. Plowable snowfall is expected for much of interior Southern New England overnight, with a slow transition of snow to ice north of the Mass Pike and west of I-495. In other words, expect the morning commute to be challenging. 2-5” of snow is forecast to fall locally, with as much as 6” across the hill country and the Berkshires. Computer models are are varying on how long cold air will hold in the region, and this may result in snow accumulation adjustments and possibly ice accumulation adjustments. Key considerations for this storm first storm of the season include:

1) Timing of the onset of the storm. It will initially be cold, and if snow is able to reach the ground Sunday Evening, it will be a lighter, fluffier snow, which could allow for more accumulation. If it is too dry, it may take time for thing to moisten up to allow snow to reach the ground.

2) How long the cold air is able to remain entrenched in the region and how deep the cold air will be. This will determine if snow is able to last longer, particularly in interior locations (like Amherst) and how much any ice accumulation could be in the area. It should be noted that temperatures were colder than expected this morning, and how much warming occurs during today could affect snow and ice amounts.

3) Storm track and how quickly the secondary low formation occurs and where it tracks. This could also impact the amount of cold air in the region.

And now onto the important question – have you got bread and milk?

Stay safe out there everyone. For new drivers, the first storm of the season always presents a steep learning curve.

Born on this day, 1830

"We have had fatal weather - thermometer two below zero all day, without a word of apology. Summer was always dear, but such a kiss as she'll get from me if I ever see her again, will make her cry, I know...." (Letter to Frances Norcross, 1862)

                                       - Emily Dickinson, born in Amherst on this day in 1830

Photo of the Dickinson Homestead by S. Vardatira
(This was the September photo in the 2014 Head in the Clouds Amherst Wall Calendar)

Below December Clouds

"Never say there is nothing beautiful in the world anymore. There is always something to make you wonder in the shape of a tree, the trembling of a leaf."

- Albert Schweitzer

Cumulus clouds over Hadley farms - Hadley, MA
Photo by S. Vardatira, 12/2/2016