The seasonal assault on mailboxes

Broken mailbox covered by snow, February 10, 2015
Photos by S. Vardatira

Endangered species (newspapers and mailboxes)
February 2011

Does your mailbox take a beating every winter? If you live on a rural mail delivery route in New England, you know exactly what I mean.

This year, and I honestly have no clue how this happened, the door of our mailbox got ripped off (I presume by a plow) while the mailbox itself stayed firmly planted. Usually the whole contraption ends up on the ground. Two years ago, with the box crushed on its side on the ground, the mail carrier still managed to put the mail in the box. But at least it had a door - this year, with no door and blowing snow, our mail is probably miles away. During each of my frequent trips to the post office this week, I've overheard one or more customers trying to figure out how to deal with their own mailbox woes. I swear, we could start a support group.

At the very least, a coffee table book of broken mailbox
photos!

Mailbox buried in snow, January 2010

Mailbox felled by early summer microburst, June 2010

Digging out mailbox, February 2011

Another Fizzle in the Valley?

Revised NWS Snowfall Projections as of 2/8 at 10:00 pm
(Amherst is in the 8-10 inch "additional snow" zone)

Snow has been falling so lightly that I had to go outside and hold out my hand to figure out what was happening. Slowly accumulating, very small, granular flakes of snow. So it is snowing on top of the 3" we've gotten since yesterday, but at this point anyway, it's nowhere near a 1-2"/hour snowfall rate.

Just checked the official NWS (National Weather Service) discussion for our region, and, not surprisingly, they have downgraded their total snowfall projections for the CT River Valley to about 8-10" additional snow through tomorrow night (on top of the 3" we've already gotten). And I'm guessing here in the Pioneer Valley, where "snow storms come to die" (nod to Dave Hayes The Weather Nut for that phrase) we may not even get that much. 

If you are wondering why we often seem to get less than predicted, it's because of a phenomenon known as "shadowing." Basically, the northeast flow brings higher amounts of snowfall - or upslope enhancement - along the east slopes of the Berkshires and Worcester Hills, while between these areas the amounts are less. This is particularly true in the lower Connecticut River Valley, where we have a tendancy to experience shadowing. Folks who live in ski country know this phenomenon well, as snow "summits" and snow "shadows" can be found within a few miles of each other. For example, Bennington VT has about 55 inches of snow per year, while Somerset, with over 120 inches, is located only about 15 miles away, but at a much higher elevation.

All this to say that if you were starting to imagine 20" of snow by tomorrow afternoon, it's probably best to adjust your expectations. You'll have to go west to the Berkshires or east to the Worcester Hills, Boston, and coastal areas to their north for more snow, but even there projections have been tempered slightly. Disappointing to some degree (I do love a good snowstorm), but we have plenty of snow on the ground regardless - and 6-10 inches is plowable and more than enough to shovel. In fact, this would seem a very respectable amount of snow if we hadn't been hearing 1-2 foot amounts and higher for several days now.

Looking ahead, the Thursday/Friday storm looks like it may also be a primarily coastal event, but we still have insanely cold, record-breaking low temps on tap for next weekend. So there's that to look forward to, of course! 

Driving has been teacherous all day (reports of many accidents on 91 this evening), so go slow tomorrow and stay off the roads if you can. School is closed for the day (again), so good luck to all the parents out there trying to figure out what to do with yet another snow day!

Anyone in Amherst seeing freezing drizzle out there?

Ice on car, Amherst MA
(Not today! This was taken last month, 1/4/2015) 

Just got a couple of official NWS notifications warning of FREEZING DRIZZLE and/or freezing rain in Amherst. Nothing is coming down where I am at the moment, but anyone seeing freezing drizzle/rain where you are? The temperature hangs at 24 F right now, so if it's raining at all it is absolutely going to freeze on contact. This storm was expected to bring ice accumulations south of the CT border, so if we've got icing here, this is a very unwelcome development.

Next week's record-setting cold snap

I could not believe my eyes when I saw this temperature forecast map (GFS computer model) for next Sunday, 2/15. You may actually be wishing for snow after you see these temperatures (and no, this is air temperature, not wind chill). If we really get temperatures like these, we will be setting all-time records across New England, and on south for that matter. I feel like breaking out the hand warmers just looking at this, and I don't even want to think about the heating bill.

WINTER STORM UPDATE (and is another on the horizon?!)

Puffer's Pond in Snow, Amherst MA
Photo by S. Vardatira

Latest computer model projections point to "high confidence" in our getting between 3-6" tonight through tomorrow afternoon around here (more like 3" around Amherst, 6" in the higher elevations). 

And then we will get heavier "signficant" snowfall from later Sunday night through Monday night (2/8-2/9). I haven't been able to come by a solid projection for the Sunday night to Monday night amount, but when all's said and done we're still talking 8"-16" total. There are some murmurings that the total could be even higher in some locations, but no one is going out on that limb just yet. 

Looking ahead (and please don't shoot the messenger here), it is starting to look like we could have another round of snow by Thursday/Friday of the coming week - still a ways off, however, and much can change. Just in case you don't believe me, here's an exact quote from the most recent National Weather Forecast discussion for our region: 

ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS HEADING TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BE STORM NUMBER 5 WITHIN THIS ACTIVE PATTERN THAT DOESN`T LOOK TO END. WHAT A COME BACK FOR WINTER!

Trust me - although all caps are the standard format for these weather discussions (no, no one is screaming about the weather), exclamation marks are actually used very sparingly. 

Stay calm, keep breathing!

Weather Forecast Déjà Vu (aka another Monday snowstorm in New England)

Dad and child sledding, Amherst Winterfest 2014
Photo by Jill Paul

SNOWSTORM UPDATE: If you are readying yourself to stop by Winterfest (Cherry Hill, today, starting at 1 pm), but are worried about that white stuff falling from the sky, fear not. Though we are indeed under a WINTER STORM WATCH from late tonight through late Monday night (yes, you read that correctly), we will only have light snow showers and flurries this afternoon.

What's ahead of us late tomorrow through Monday is a  l o n g  d u r a t i o n storm. There will be periods of light snow Sunday with snow becoming steadier and heavier as we get into later Sunday night though late Monday night. Monday is likely to be a mess (déjà vu, right?). Snow accumulations of 8-16" are expected across the region, with higher amounts north of the Mass Pike. Winds with this storm could gust to 30-40 mph which may create poor visibility and blowing and drifting snow. The good news is that the snowfall pattern looks like it will diminish somewhat in the second half of February - the bad news is that it will likely get even colder. In fact, we have the potential for near record cold later this coming week.

So go on and enjoy Winterfest - the next snowstorm nears but is not yet upon us.

Join Amherst's Annual Winter Celebration, February 7!

This is your reward for putting up with all the ice, shoveling, and cold - Amherst Winterfest 2015!! The upside to winter will be on full display, from sledding and wagon rides, to kids carnival, to hooping, to best in snow dog show, cider donut eating contest, and so much more. And it all wraps up with a brilliant fireworks display after the sun goes down.

This is happening tomorrow, Saturday, February 7, starting at 1:00 pm - see the full schedule, below. Trust us - you'll come away wondering why anyone complains about winter! (At least until Sunday, when the snow starts up again.)

See you there - and please send us your favorite Winterfest photos!

Send your Winterfest photos via email to: 
cloudsamherst [@] gmail [dot] com
The [at] and [dot] are done to keep email addresses from being collected by 
spammers and harvesting robots. You just have to replace them for [@] and [.] 

when you write your e-mail.

On morning snow, evening wind chill, and my brush with frostbite

Cushman Brook, Amherst MA
Photo by S. Vardatira

Yes, that's more snow you're seeing out there, but it won't amount to more than an inch or two. At the same time, that inch or two will definitely make the roads and sidewalks slick in spots and obscure icy patches - so go easy when traveling this morning.

Also, keep in mind that a WIND CHILL ADVISORY is in effect for our area, from 6 pm this evening to 9 am Friday morning, for bitterly cold wind chills down to -18 F. Temperatures will be falling throughout the day as winds pick up to 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. If you are heading outdoors, dress in layers and wear hat and gloves. Take it from one who knows - frostbite can develop very quickly (even when you think you are more than well protected).

In my case, it was a mild form of frostbite, known as "frostnip," which I experienced earlier this week on one of those “bitterly cold,” wind chill warning days when my gloves got snow-filled and then icy. (I was digging myself out of a deep snow bank using my hands, and how I got there is really so stupid it boggles the mind – and that’s all I’m sharing about that!) All within the space of about 15 minutes, before I got back to my car, my hands became completely numb, and although they thawed relatively quickly with none of the truly awful symptoms of frostbite, I still have lingering numbness on the tips of my fingers now, several days later. I had never even heard of frostnip before – it’s something outdoor enthusiasts and nature photographers tend to talk about (it's apparently somewhat common among rock climbers who scale walls of ice in the winter). Fortunately, with frostnip, the fingertip numbness usually goes away after a week or two.  And when you get frostnip you feel grateful, as you just avoided full-on frostbite.

Winter is lovely – to a point. While you’re enjoying the snow and thrilling to the incredibly beautiful painted white vistas out there, keep your wits about you. Don’t dive into a snowbank without an exit strategy, and be aware that extreme cold is dangerous. If you need your fingers and toes (and nose), protect them.

Are we headed for a repeat of our last storm?!!

Snow in the Valley
Photo by S.Vardatira

"I'll give you a winter prediction: It's gonna be cold, it's gonna be grey,

and it's gonna last you for the rest of your life..."

- said by Phil, the TV weather forecaster, in Groundhog Day (the movie)

If you haven't heard by now, it looks like we might be headed for, yes, another big snow event - "A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW" (National Weather Service) this Sunday into Tuesday (February 8-10, just so you don’t think I am talking about last weekend).

Sure, there will be bouts of flurries, perhaps a snow shower here and there, maybe even a few more inches between now and then - but really, what are a few inches of snow between friends who live in New England? We'll be fine. It's Sunday-Tuesday we need to keep an eye on - because if it's a repeat of our recent storm, it's going to be interesting figuring out where to put the snow, what to do with another snow day, navigating the ever-narrowing streets, etc.

And if you were hoping for some melting, forget it. Today was the warmest day of the week. Tomorrow the temps plunge again. Everything freezes (assuming anything even thawed today), black ice, and slippery conditions will abound. Stay safe out there, ready the show shovels/snow blowers, and prepare for (possibly) yet another snow day come Monday.  

It is better to have your head in the clouds...

"It is better to have your head in the clouds, and know where you are... than to breathe the clearer atmosphere below them, and think that you are in paradise."  

                                                                                                 - Henry David Thoreau

Afternoon sun through trees - Puffer's Pond, Amherst MA
Photo by S.Vardatira, 1/31/2015

For more of our favorite quotes and sayings about clouds, weather, and the seasons, check out our Emily's House page.

Beautiful, beautiful snowy night

Night snow from porch, Amherst MA
Photo by S.Vardatira, 2/2/2015

Beautiful, beautiful night out there. Bundled up to shovel one more time - now in the dark. Still snowing, so cold, a hush over everything. All of the nearly 12" on the ground is powdery and light, glittering in the lamplight. Had to grab my camera, but a picture doesn't come close to capturing it. Still, I try. Have a good night, everyone - hope you are safe and warm wherever you are.

The woods are lovely, dark and deep (and sometimes peculiar, too)

Not infrequently, one sees the oddest things while walking in the woods. 

On average, I measure about 9.25" of snow from today's storm in Amherst (Pelham/Amherst border) as of 2:00 pm today - and it's still snowing pretty hard. What are you seeing out there?

Bench in Woods, Amherst MA
Photo by S.Vardatira, 2/2/2015

We demand a groundhog forecast redo!

Trails in Conway (Conway MA)
Photo by Laura Eve-Cowles, 2/1/2015

I refuse to believe that Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow, as you HAVE TO HAVE SUN to see your shadow. And I checked. There was no sun in Punxsutawney this morning - in fact, it was about to snow! Now I suppose with all those television cameras around, they might have simulated "shadow-making" conditions, but I hardly think that counts. I demand a redo. They cannot take away my (delusions of) early spring! And there I was on such a high after the Superbowl, only to have Phil's interpreters suck the joy out of the day. Wait, just had another thought - just how far does a Pennsylvania groundhog's weather forecast reach anyway?

Meanwhile, back at home here in Amherst, we have a solid 5.25" of snow on the ground (as of 8:30 am), with the radar showing us smack in the middle of the "all snow" zone. Expect snow to continue, heavy at times, at least through early afternoon. The snow will ease up somewhat, with occasional breaks in precipitation, starting around 2 pm this afternoon, and by evening things will taper off to occasional snow and flurries. We are currently under a WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 am Tuesday.

Stone Wall in Snow, Conway MA
Photo by Laura Eve-Cowles, 2/1/2015

There is a defined snow/sleet/freezing rain line with this storm, and right now there are swirling questions about how much of southeastern MA and CT will get sleet and freezing rain. There is general consensus that areas north of the Mass Pike will get all snow. Expect about a foot, with up to 15" in some locations, mostly at higher elevations. 

As this storm pulls away later today, it will drag frigid air south, into southern New England, from the north. Temperatures will bottom out at zero to -5 F in Central and Western MA. Any locations to the south and southeast that get sleet/rain today will experience flash freezing at that point. This is one storm where Amherst is a good place to be (barring the possibility of being on some tropical island, of course).

Enjoy the snow, everyone - there's certainly going to be plenty to play in! And I know it's going to be hard, but just try to forget about Punxsutawney Phil for today.


* Special thanks for Laura Eve-Cowles for sending us today's photos, taken where she skis and snowshoes on the trails of Conway, MA.

Another snowstorm tomorrow, or the "boy who cried wolf?"

Frost on the Window
Photo by S. Vardatira

Yes, last weekend's snowstorm was a bust around here. Projections of 1-2 feet of snow, and we ended up with 5-6 inches in Amherst. But that doesn't mean the same thing will happen with our impending storm (tonight through early Tuesday).

In fact, unlike "The Blizzard of 2015," where snowfall projections fell off around here as we got closer to the storm, snowfall projections for our upcoming event continue to eke up. Yes, I said it. Going out on a (cold, snow laden) limb on this one!

We are currently under a WINTER STORM WARNING, in effect from 9 PM THIS EVENING through 1 AM TUESDAY for around a foot of snow. Gusty north winds of 10-20 mph and bitterly cold wind chills will reduce visibility and make for difficult, hazardous travel.

Yes, I know many of you feel burned and have taken a pretty "ho hum" attitude about all this. I keep hearing people mention the "boy who cried wolf" in reference to our recent weather forecasts. As in "those $%#& weather forecasters, who's going to believe them now? They're like the boy who cried wolf!" If you're one of those people, just consider this for a moment - the fairy tale ends with a real, live wolf.

Stay safe out there, stay off the roads if possible, and bundle up if you go out. Storm's a' comin'... I'm pretty sure.