Another Fizzle in the Valley?

Revised NWS Snowfall Projections as of 2/8 at 10:00 pm
(Amherst is in the 8-10 inch "additional snow" zone)

Snow has been falling so lightly that I had to go outside and hold out my hand to figure out what was happening. Slowly accumulating, very small, granular flakes of snow. So it is snowing on top of the 3" we've gotten since yesterday, but at this point anyway, it's nowhere near a 1-2"/hour snowfall rate.

Just checked the official NWS (National Weather Service) discussion for our region, and, not surprisingly, they have downgraded their total snowfall projections for the CT River Valley to about 8-10" additional snow through tomorrow night (on top of the 3" we've already gotten). And I'm guessing here in the Pioneer Valley, where "snow storms come to die" (nod to Dave Hayes The Weather Nut for that phrase) we may not even get that much. 

If you are wondering why we often seem to get less than predicted, it's because of a phenomenon known as "shadowing." Basically, the northeast flow brings higher amounts of snowfall - or upslope enhancement - along the east slopes of the Berkshires and Worcester Hills, while between these areas the amounts are less. This is particularly true in the lower Connecticut River Valley, where we have a tendancy to experience shadowing. Folks who live in ski country know this phenomenon well, as snow "summits" and snow "shadows" can be found within a few miles of each other. For example, Bennington VT has about 55 inches of snow per year, while Somerset, with over 120 inches, is located only about 15 miles away, but at a much higher elevation.

All this to say that if you were starting to imagine 20" of snow by tomorrow afternoon, it's probably best to adjust your expectations. You'll have to go west to the Berkshires or east to the Worcester Hills, Boston, and coastal areas to their north for more snow, but even there projections have been tempered slightly. Disappointing to some degree (I do love a good snowstorm), but we have plenty of snow on the ground regardless - and 6-10 inches is plowable and more than enough to shovel. In fact, this would seem a very respectable amount of snow if we hadn't been hearing 1-2 foot amounts and higher for several days now.

Looking ahead, the Thursday/Friday storm looks like it may also be a primarily coastal event, but we still have insanely cold, record-breaking low temps on tap for next weekend. So there's that to look forward to, of course! 

Driving has been teacherous all day (reports of many accidents on 91 this evening), so go slow tomorrow and stay off the roads if you can. School is closed for the day (again), so good luck to all the parents out there trying to figure out what to do with yet another snow day!