Another weekend snowstorm (aka what else is new?)

Snow on State Street, North Amherst MA
2/15/2015 (as well as every other Sunday so far this month)
Photo by S. Vardatira

For those of you who were enjoying the snow free skies and relatively warm temperatures today (yes, our 9 F right now looks good compared to -9), I hate to be the bearer of bad news. Sub-zero temperatures surge back with a vengeance on Thursday/Friday, and it looks like we might be in for another long-duration storm by Saturday night.

On Thursday night, minimum temps will fall below zero again, and gusting winds will result in wind chills in the -15 to -25 F range through Friday morning. As for the weekend storm, there is currently “high confidence” that an extended period of wintery precipitation is likely across most of Southern New England from Saturday night through Sunday and possibly continuing into Sunday night. That part of it is pretty clear – less clear is exactly what will be falling and where. It all hinges on the storm track (doesn’t it always?).  Right now, computer models are in general agreement that things will warm up enough that the coast will get mixed precipitation, likely turning to all rain along the southeast coast. The models diverge, however, on just how far north that rain/ice/snow line will set up. Most models have interior Western Massachusetts in the all-snow range, but at least one is forecasting a changeover to ice/rain all the way into the interior (though that model seems somewhat out there at this moment). So basically, there’s a lot of uncertainty. Something’s coming. Could be significant snowfall, could be ice, and could be a mix. Given the temps we’ve been experiencing, if it is rain, it’s going to be the freezing variety.

More to follow over the next few days, as we get closer to the next main event. Is this next storm system #6? #7? #8? Honestly, I’ve completely lost count.