Yanked into Winter

First Snow at Cushman Brook, 12/2013
Photo by S. Vardattira

The National Weather Service has posted a “HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK” for Monday night into Tuesday for the Amherst area (as well as Northern Connecticut, all of Massachusetts except Berkshire County, and Rhode Island). This is one of those situations where storm track makes all the difference and there are still a lot of unknowns to consider. On the one hand, our prolonged period of well above-normal temperatures means the ground is not yet frozen in many places. This will make it tough to accumulate snow if the snow doesn’t fall quickly enough. Moreover, with the temperature rising above freezing on Tuesday, the big question (in terms of snowfall amounts) is the extent to which the snow falls while the temperature is still low enough to support snow, and before a dry slot moves in aloft and “deactivates the ice nuclei.” So depending on those and a variety of other factors, conditions could favor snow or more of a wintry mix of sleet or freezing rain.

At present, it seems most likely that the brunt of our snowfall will occur from midnight to 7 am on Tuesday. Then the transition to a wintry mix begins from Connecticut, moving north to our area. This could make for a messy Tuesday morning commute. The Tuesday evening commute should not be as bad, as any lingering precipitation should be in the form of rain at that time. Specific snow and ice accumulations are not yet definitive, but we will probably get at least a few inches of snow overnight from Monday night into Tuesday morning. Of greater concern is the strong likelihood of sleet and possibly freezing rain early Tuesday and Tuesday morning. It takes only a trace of snow and/or ice to make untreated roads slippery. Additional amounts only magnify the impact, but with this kind of event, even light precipitation can be hazardous.

And then, of course, there’s the emotional impact of our being suddenly yanked from our balmy winter into something more… well… like New England in winter.

Oh, yeah, another storm is headed our way for Thursday. What exactly that will turn out to be (snow, rain, mix) is still up in the air. Literally. Pun intended.