Sub-zero to mid-40s, with snow, rain and ice (that's New England!)

UPDATED AT 10:30 AM SUNDAY, 1/16

STORM SUMMARY for Amherst/Pelham and nearby areas (initial post at 3 AM, Sunday):

The outdoor thermometer reads just 1°F at 3 am in Amherst right now, and if you aren't sound asleep, you are likely consumed with piling on the covers, while turning your attention to our Sunday/Monday storm. The news is so saturated with weather coverage, it's easy to miss one very key point - namely impacts will vary significantly depending on where you're located. Here in the Pioneer Valley (in and around Amherst) it will certainly be messy - but we won't get the most snow or the highest winds. In fact, we are forecast to get a turnover to rain with rising temps on Monday. How much those temps actually rise remains to be seen. It is not uncommon, particularly after extreme cold snaps like we are having, for surface cold to hang on longer than predicted in the Valley. We can end up having our own localized temperature inversion where cold air stays trapped at the surface with warmer air at higher elevations. Sometimes this phenomenon can affect relatively tiny pockets. For example, temps can be in the low 40s in Hadley, while a few miles away, at Puffer's Pond in Amherst, it's still icing with temps not budging past 32. So, in short, be prepared for everything with this upcoming event: snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain, roughly in that order.

Here are the main forecast takeaways for Western MA:

1. A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect for Western Franklin, Western Hampshire, Western Hampden Counties of Massachusetts from 12 AM tonight to 12 PM Monday for 6-12" of snow with snowfall rates of 2" per hour and wind gusts to 40 mph (Amherst is in Eastern Hampshire, so this Storm Watch only applies to points to our west and north, at higher elevations.)

2. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from Midnight tonight to 7 AM Monday for Eastern Franklin County Massachusetts for 3-5" of wet snow and is also in effect for Northern Connecticut, Eastern Hampshire, Eastern Hampden, Southern Worcester, and Central Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for 1-4" of snow and a light glaze of ice.

3. The current storm track will bring a front-end thump of snow to Western MA - including an estimated 1-3" of snow to Amherst and areas nearby. Snow is forecast to start around midnight, followed by a turnover to all rain between 3-6 AM and temps up to 42°F by mid-day Monday. Given the cold ground temps we could still be dealing with a glaze of ice by the morning commute. How long icing lingers is the question. As I said, weather forecasts tend to underestimate the degree to which cold temps hang around in discrete parts of the Valley.

Fingers crossed the temps really do climb as quickly as predicted. But keep your ice cleats handy, just in case.

Stay warm, safe and have a cozy Sunday.