Join Amherst's Annual Winter Celebration, February 7!

This is your reward for putting up with all the ice, shoveling, and cold - Amherst Winterfest 2015!! The upside to winter will be on full display, from sledding and wagon rides, to kids carnival, to hooping, to best in snow dog show, cider donut eating contest, and so much more. And it all wraps up with a brilliant fireworks display after the sun goes down.

This is happening tomorrow, Saturday, February 7, starting at 1:00 pm - see the full schedule, below. Trust us - you'll come away wondering why anyone complains about winter! (At least until Sunday, when the snow starts up again.)

See you there - and please send us your favorite Winterfest photos!

Send your Winterfest photos via email to: 
cloudsamherst [@] gmail [dot] com
The [at] and [dot] are done to keep email addresses from being collected by 
spammers and harvesting robots. You just have to replace them for [@] and [.] 

when you write your e-mail.

On morning snow, evening wind chill, and my brush with frostbite

Cushman Brook, Amherst MA
Photo by S. Vardatira

Yes, that's more snow you're seeing out there, but it won't amount to more than an inch or two. At the same time, that inch or two will definitely make the roads and sidewalks slick in spots and obscure icy patches - so go easy when traveling this morning.

Also, keep in mind that a WIND CHILL ADVISORY is in effect for our area, from 6 pm this evening to 9 am Friday morning, for bitterly cold wind chills down to -18 F. Temperatures will be falling throughout the day as winds pick up to 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. If you are heading outdoors, dress in layers and wear hat and gloves. Take it from one who knows - frostbite can develop very quickly (even when you think you are more than well protected).

In my case, it was a mild form of frostbite, known as "frostnip," which I experienced earlier this week on one of those “bitterly cold,” wind chill warning days when my gloves got snow-filled and then icy. (I was digging myself out of a deep snow bank using my hands, and how I got there is really so stupid it boggles the mind – and that’s all I’m sharing about that!) All within the space of about 15 minutes, before I got back to my car, my hands became completely numb, and although they thawed relatively quickly with none of the truly awful symptoms of frostbite, I still have lingering numbness on the tips of my fingers now, several days later. I had never even heard of frostnip before – it’s something outdoor enthusiasts and nature photographers tend to talk about (it's apparently somewhat common among rock climbers who scale walls of ice in the winter). Fortunately, with frostnip, the fingertip numbness usually goes away after a week or two.  And when you get frostnip you feel grateful, as you just avoided full-on frostbite.

Winter is lovely – to a point. While you’re enjoying the snow and thrilling to the incredibly beautiful painted white vistas out there, keep your wits about you. Don’t dive into a snowbank without an exit strategy, and be aware that extreme cold is dangerous. If you need your fingers and toes (and nose), protect them.

Are we headed for a repeat of our last storm?!!

Snow in the Valley
Photo by S.Vardatira

"I'll give you a winter prediction: It's gonna be cold, it's gonna be grey,

and it's gonna last you for the rest of your life..."

- said by Phil, the TV weather forecaster, in Groundhog Day (the movie)

If you haven't heard by now, it looks like we might be headed for, yes, another big snow event - "A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW" (National Weather Service) this Sunday into Tuesday (February 8-10, just so you don’t think I am talking about last weekend).

Sure, there will be bouts of flurries, perhaps a snow shower here and there, maybe even a few more inches between now and then - but really, what are a few inches of snow between friends who live in New England? We'll be fine. It's Sunday-Tuesday we need to keep an eye on - because if it's a repeat of our recent storm, it's going to be interesting figuring out where to put the snow, what to do with another snow day, navigating the ever-narrowing streets, etc.

And if you were hoping for some melting, forget it. Today was the warmest day of the week. Tomorrow the temps plunge again. Everything freezes (assuming anything even thawed today), black ice, and slippery conditions will abound. Stay safe out there, ready the show shovels/snow blowers, and prepare for (possibly) yet another snow day come Monday.  

It is better to have your head in the clouds...

"It is better to have your head in the clouds, and know where you are... than to breathe the clearer atmosphere below them, and think that you are in paradise."  

                                                                                                 - Henry David Thoreau

Afternoon sun through trees - Puffer's Pond, Amherst MA
Photo by S.Vardatira, 1/31/2015

For more of our favorite quotes and sayings about clouds, weather, and the seasons, check out our Emily's House page.

Beautiful, beautiful snowy night

Night snow from porch, Amherst MA
Photo by S.Vardatira, 2/2/2015

Beautiful, beautiful night out there. Bundled up to shovel one more time - now in the dark. Still snowing, so cold, a hush over everything. All of the nearly 12" on the ground is powdery and light, glittering in the lamplight. Had to grab my camera, but a picture doesn't come close to capturing it. Still, I try. Have a good night, everyone - hope you are safe and warm wherever you are.

The woods are lovely, dark and deep (and sometimes peculiar, too)

Not infrequently, one sees the oddest things while walking in the woods. 

On average, I measure about 9.25" of snow from today's storm in Amherst (Pelham/Amherst border) as of 2:00 pm today - and it's still snowing pretty hard. What are you seeing out there?

Bench in Woods, Amherst MA
Photo by S.Vardatira, 2/2/2015

We demand a groundhog forecast redo!

Trails in Conway (Conway MA)
Photo by Laura Eve-Cowles, 2/1/2015

I refuse to believe that Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow, as you HAVE TO HAVE SUN to see your shadow. And I checked. There was no sun in Punxsutawney this morning - in fact, it was about to snow! Now I suppose with all those television cameras around, they might have simulated "shadow-making" conditions, but I hardly think that counts. I demand a redo. They cannot take away my (delusions of) early spring! And there I was on such a high after the Superbowl, only to have Phil's interpreters suck the joy out of the day. Wait, just had another thought - just how far does a Pennsylvania groundhog's weather forecast reach anyway?

Meanwhile, back at home here in Amherst, we have a solid 5.25" of snow on the ground (as of 8:30 am), with the radar showing us smack in the middle of the "all snow" zone. Expect snow to continue, heavy at times, at least through early afternoon. The snow will ease up somewhat, with occasional breaks in precipitation, starting around 2 pm this afternoon, and by evening things will taper off to occasional snow and flurries. We are currently under a WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 am Tuesday.

Stone Wall in Snow, Conway MA
Photo by Laura Eve-Cowles, 2/1/2015

There is a defined snow/sleet/freezing rain line with this storm, and right now there are swirling questions about how much of southeastern MA and CT will get sleet and freezing rain. There is general consensus that areas north of the Mass Pike will get all snow. Expect about a foot, with up to 15" in some locations, mostly at higher elevations. 

As this storm pulls away later today, it will drag frigid air south, into southern New England, from the north. Temperatures will bottom out at zero to -5 F in Central and Western MA. Any locations to the south and southeast that get sleet/rain today will experience flash freezing at that point. This is one storm where Amherst is a good place to be (barring the possibility of being on some tropical island, of course).

Enjoy the snow, everyone - there's certainly going to be plenty to play in! And I know it's going to be hard, but just try to forget about Punxsutawney Phil for today.


* Special thanks for Laura Eve-Cowles for sending us today's photos, taken where she skis and snowshoes on the trails of Conway, MA.

Another snowstorm tomorrow, or the "boy who cried wolf?"

Frost on the Window
Photo by S. Vardatira

Yes, last weekend's snowstorm was a bust around here. Projections of 1-2 feet of snow, and we ended up with 5-6 inches in Amherst. But that doesn't mean the same thing will happen with our impending storm (tonight through early Tuesday).

In fact, unlike "The Blizzard of 2015," where snowfall projections fell off around here as we got closer to the storm, snowfall projections for our upcoming event continue to eke up. Yes, I said it. Going out on a (cold, snow laden) limb on this one!

We are currently under a WINTER STORM WARNING, in effect from 9 PM THIS EVENING through 1 AM TUESDAY for around a foot of snow. Gusty north winds of 10-20 mph and bitterly cold wind chills will reduce visibility and make for difficult, hazardous travel.

Yes, I know many of you feel burned and have taken a pretty "ho hum" attitude about all this. I keep hearing people mention the "boy who cried wolf" in reference to our recent weather forecasts. As in "those $%#& weather forecasters, who's going to believe them now? They're like the boy who cried wolf!" If you're one of those people, just consider this for a moment - the fairy tale ends with a real, live wolf.

Stay safe out there, stay off the roads if possible, and bundle up if you go out. Storm's a' comin'... I'm pretty sure.

The upside to Monday's snowstorm - an early spring!

Lawn chairs in snow (Dublin, NH)
Photo by S. Vardatira

The upside to our snowstorm on Monday? Spring will definitely come early! Yes, it's irrefutable science:

1. Sun won't be shining on Monday (Groundhog Day).
2. Groundhog therefore cannot see his shadow.
3. Because Groundhog cannot see his shadow, it will be an early spring. 

Amazing - just as you were thinking there was no end in sight to this winter, there's a light (um, I mean a groundhog) at the end of our cold, dark - and did I mention cold? - tunnel.

Wind chills this morning of -16 F. We are currently under a WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 9 am today and under a WINTER STORM WATCH for Sunday evening through late Monday night. Forecasts are for 6-10 inches of snow, the heaviest during the day on Monday, along with wind chill readings of -15 to -24 F. Monday might be a good day to rent the movie Groundhog Day, and remind yourself that spring really is coming. (Then again, if you've ever seen the movie, you know spring could be a long, long ways off!)

Boom or bust? It all depends on location!

Here's a really clear synopsis of what happened with this storm, and why some areas really are experiencing all that and more - and why for other areas (like around here) it's been mostly a bust. Bottom line - location was everything with this storm. As of 9 am today, when Amherst had about 5" of snow, Boston was getting buried, and Framingham had the jackpot for Massachusetts at 30". Nantucket is currently without power, and the storm continues to rage across coastal areas of Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Vermont. We have been getting very light snow all morning, currently a grand total (on the Amherst/Pelham border) of 6". 

How Did East Coast Blizzard of 2015 Play Out?                   (from AccuWeather.com)

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

January 27, 2015; 11:59 AM ET

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Suomi NPP captures blizzard near peak intensity as it moves over New York and Boston regions at 1:45 am EST on Jan. 27, 2015. (NOAA/NASA)

As it became obvious on Saturday that a major blizzard was going to hit the Northeast, the track and size of the storm became critical as to which areas would be hit the hardest.

The Blizzard of 2015 has hit with all its fury in central and eastern Long Island to southern and eastern New England. The storm that started off as a moisture-starved Alberta Clipper has caused major disruptions and it is not over.

RELATED:
LIVE: Blizzard Rages on From Boston to Portland, Maine
Track the Blizzard on AccuWeather's Interactive Weather Radar
AccuWeather Winter Weather Center

Much of Long Island and southern and eastern New England will end up buried by 12-24 inches of snow. This storm for some locations, such as Worcester, Massachusetts, already ranks as one of the top-five biggest snowstorms in history. In Worcester, the biggest storm is 33 inches set during the March 31-April 1 storm of 1997.

As of 7:00 a.m. EST Tuesday, approximately 8 inches had fallen on New York City's Central Park with 11 inches at LaGuardia Airport.

Much less snow fell in the Philadelphia area. As of 7:00 a.m. EST Tuesday, 1-2 inches had fallen on the city.

Additional snow will fall from the upper mid-Atlantic coast to New England on Tuesday.

So, what caused the storm to drop less snow along the I-95 corridor in the mid-Atlantic from Philadelphia to New York City?

According to AccuWeather.com Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams, "The storm was more compact than we thought it would get. As a result, the back edge of the heavy snow and strong winds were farther to the east."

Once the storm hit the Atlantic Ocean on Monday, it began to strengthen tremendously and move steadily northeastward, rather than stall. The storm also began to track a few dozen miles farther east than speculated on Sunday.

Had the storm swelled larger by 50 miles farther west, blizzard conditions would have reached New York City, and a heavy snow accumulation would have edged into the Philadelphia area.

Snow-covered roadways and vehicles in the Boston area Tuesday morning, Jan. 27, 2015. (Photo/takumamusic)

Because of the storm's compact size, relatively speaking, the heavy wet snow was limited to extreme southeastern New England.

"Dry, powdery snow and moderate wind has spared the New York City area to central New England massive power outages," Abrams said. "However, the snow has been wet and clinging, combined with high winds, in southeastern Massachusetts and has caused numerous power outages."

Additional snow will fall in the corridor from Philadelphia to New York City into Tuesday afternoon with locally heavy burst or two of snow in some cases.

Blizzard conditions will continue into Tuesday evening in part of New England.

Storm is advancing - now what to do about it?

Called a friend of mine last night - she lives in New York City - to discuss Birdman and the outcome of the SAG awards, when I happened to mention the impending storm. "Really? There's a storm? Coming.... here?" she queried casually. You can probably imagine my response.

New York City, along with Boston, and just about all of Southern New England and the mid-Atlantic coastal areas will be feeling the brunt of this storm, which is projected to bring 2-3 feet of snow to much of our area. The eastern half of Massachusetts and all coastal areas will also get high winds and blizzard conditions. That includes, of course, New York City. And managing a storm like that in a place like New York City is daunting to say the least. Just figuring out where to put the snow is an almost impossible task.

My friend mused on how funny it is that New Yorkers freak out when the corner Starbucks closes due to a few inches of snow. I responded by explaining that New York's EMT services will be accompanied by the National Guard. You can see our heads were in slightly different places. The EMT thing did make an impact, fortunately. "Why ever do they need the National Guard?" she asked with surprise. She may sound ditzy to you, but I assure you, she's a well-regarded lawyer, generally very asute and clever about things. Apparently not the potential impact of weather.

After about 10 minutes of relaying all the potential impacts of a storm of this magnitude, I seemed to have broken through her fog of denial. "Oh gee," she said, "is there something I should do to prepare?" Turns out she just happens to have a fireplace and wood (something I don't even have, mind you, which definitely put a damper on my "more prepared than thou" attitude), but on other counts, she was glad for the checklist.

So on that note, if you aren't already working with your own checklist, there's still time to prepare before hunkering down to ride this one out:

• Make sure to have a two-week supply of your family's medications, including any pet medications needed.
• Have at least a few days' food, water, and supplies for infants, young children, pets, and others in your family that may have special requirements.
• Make sure to have a radio, working flashlights, and extra batteries.
• Charge your phone and charge back-up chargers before the storm starts. Keep your phone charged up as much as possible ahead of and during the storm.
• Have extra blankets, and winter gear like hats, gloves, and scarves on standby and in your car in case of emergency.
• Fill your gas tank before the snow starts, as gas stations need electricity to run, so they could close down if the power goes out.
• Make sure you have cash - ATMs close down when there are power outages. You may also want to take care of any bills that you might normally pay over the next week.
• WMECO suggests turning your refrigerator to its coldest settings ahead of the storm to help food last a couple of extra days if there is a power outage. Alternatively, it's going to be plenty cold after this storm passes, so storing food in a cooler outside (with a latch that animals can't open) is another option I've used in past storms.

There - that's the short list. All things you should be able to take care of this morning. Massachusetts officials are asking all non-essential personnel to be off the roads by later this afternoon through Tuesday.

And if you want more to do, along with emergency numbers, check out the Town of Amherst's emergency preparedness brochure, here.  

Stay safe, everyone, and enjoy the snow!

Latest snowfall projections

Harvey Leonard (the Boston meteorologist who made a name for himself when he accurately predicted the Blizzard of '78) this morning updated the snowfall projections slightly, placing us in a somewhat more manageable zone. Shoveling 18" is one thing - 30" is quite another. Of course, this map is no consolation to people living in the Worcester Hills, southern NH, and Boston.

Waiting for the Blizzard of 2015?

Boston Globe photo of Route 128, Blizzard of '78

A WINTER STORM WATCH  & STORM UPDATE FOR MONDAY-WEDNESDAY.  You undoubtedly already have your eye on this coming week’s storm, but I would be remiss not to add a little local perspective to the avalanche (or would that be “snowstorm”?) of information coming your way.  It’s being called “historic,” with a set-up something akin to the Blizzard of ’78. Weather forecasters do not say this lightly – in Massachusetts these days, the Blizzard of ’78 is the bar against which all other snowstorms are measured. But part of what made the Blizzard of ’78 so dangerous was that it caught a lot of people off guard. Remember photos of all those cars stranded on highways and byways in feet of snow? Houses sucked into the ocean? Trapped in and around your house for days? Fortunately, weather forecasting has come a long way in the last four decades, and this time around Harvey Leonard isn't the only weather forecaster seeing it coming. So before you criticize forecasters for over-hyping the weather to boost their station’s ratings, keep in mind that storms like this can be lethal. Keeping hundreds of people from being stranded on the Mass Pike or falling into the ocean will be all the difference, hopefully, between The Blizzard of ’78 and what is shaping up to be the Blizzard of 2015.

Homes ravaged by the storm along
Peggotty Beach, Scituate,
 Blizzard of '78
Photo unattributed found here 

 That being said, we are not in danger of falling into the ocean here, and with some common sense (don’t drive during the storm and prepare for possible outages) just about everyone around here should be able to “weather” this just fine.  

So here are the highlights:

First, according to NOAA, a “major and potentially historic winter storm” will affect our region Monday night into Tuesday night, even continuing into early Wednesday. The worst of the storm looks to occur Monday night into Tuesday afternoon, during which time “travel may become impossible and life threatening.”

The signs are pretty much a textbook case for a major winter storm/blizzard in Southern New England, as low pressure bombs out and tracks up the New England coast. This highly amplified pattern will allow for a slow moving/long duration storm. In addition, high pressure across Eastern Canada will supply plenty of cold air for the storm to work with. Drier weather follows Wednesday into early Thursday, but we will have to watch for another chance of snow by the end of the work week.  (Late January through February typically brings our biggest storms, so more storms on the horizon should be no surprise, right?)

Like the Blizzard of ’78, Tuesday’s coastal storm will likely have the strongest impact on the eastern part of the state and coastal areas, which are currently under a Blizzard Watch. The eastern part of the state will likely see 1-2 feet of snow or more, damaging winds (mostly on the Cape and Islands), and significant coastal flooding. Almost all of Massachusetts is at “ground zero for the heaviest snow.” The models are in very good agreement, all showing 1 to 2 feet of snow for much of the region, including around here. There may even be areas (mostly higher elevations) that exceed 2 feet where localized banding sets up. Damaging northeast wind gusts of 45 to 60 mph will be felt across eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island, with gusts between 60 to 70 mph expected across the Cape and Islands.

A WINTER STORM WATCH has been issued for Central and Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut, where 1-2 feet of snow is expected. It’s possible this may be upgraded to a Blizzard Watch/Warning, but it’s too early to know for sure how much wind will mix across our region. If the storm tracks to the east, the highest snow amounts may never materialize around here, and if it tracks to the west, we’ll get even more snow. (The track presents an even more tricky forecast scenario for the Cape and Islands, which could be either all rain or all snow based on the storm track.)

By the time the storm comes to an end early Wednesday morning and the cleanup begins, we may already be anticipating another winter storm later Thursday or Friday. Fun times, right? (And we really do mean that!)

Ice Fishing on Puffer's Pond

Ice Fishing on Puffer's Pond, February 2013
(on an unusually uncrowded day)
Photo by S. Vardatira

Great day for ice fishing at Puffer's. Friend just called from his folding chair on the pond to report 12" thick ice and "lots of fish" biting. He's caught 6 fish so far (trout or bass, I forgot to ask). If you go, don't tell anyone you read this here. I've noticed that fisherfolk don't really want the crowds! :)