First major snowstorm of 2014 on its way... maybe!

Snowstorm at midnight - State Street, Amherst MA (2013)
Photo by Joshua Wolfsun

Update as of Tuesday, 12/31/2013, 5:57 AM: Having gone out on that proverbial limb to predict our getting lots o' snow (potentially) on Thursday into Friday (see below), let me also be the first to note that the most recent models tend to be taking the system further off shore, which would mean less snow for us and more for the coast. There's a storm, for sure, but whether it will dance over us is more the question.

We've already had plowable snow twice this season, but if the computer models have it right, our first storm of 2014 is going to be a memorable one. We're still three days out from Thursday, when the snow will be starting, but even now the GFS and Euro computer models have begun to align, particularly in terms of what we can expect around here in Hampshire County (and the surrounding areas). And that is, essentially, a significant amout of snow - as much as 12-18 inches by the time things wind up on Friday! Though there's still some uncertainty about the impact of this storm on coastal areas and other parts of New England, our region appears to be pretty solidly in the center of the action this time around. Right now, it looks like the snow will start around mid-morning to early afternoon on Thursday, although the heavy snows won't arrive until late Thursday continuing through much of the day on Friday. This will be a long duration storm, with plowable snow and very cold temperatures (so no chance of any kind of precipitation but snow). Things could change (we still have a number of days to watch things develop), but even Matt Noyes, NECN meterological guru, wrote just today, "High-end guidance supports a couple of feet for much of New England in an all-out blizzard." Which is just fancy speak for it's possible we could have an all-out blizzard around here. So when you're out and about tomorrow preparing for your New Year's Eve festivities, don't forget the bread and milk along with the champagne and chocolates. Have a wonderful New Year, and keep those shovels handy!

When, Where and How Much Snow on Tuesday?

Sign of things to come this winter?
(Photo from February 2011, by S.Vardatira)

Confused about the conflicting predictions for Tuesday's storm?  While it's true that over the weekend it was looking pretty minor, by late Monday the computer models aligned around something a little more substantive for our area. Here's what we know:

By Tuesday, a storm system will be moving into the area from the west and intensifying offshore of Southern New England. The storm will bring plowable snowfall and a general snow accumulation of 2-5" to much of Southern New England. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for our area and almost all of Massachusetts, except for Cape Cod and the Islands where a mix of snow and rain will keep amounts lower and in the coating to 2 inch range. Impact on our morning commute should be minor, with snow starting near the end of or just after the morning commute. The evening commute will likely see direct impact.

The uncertainties with this particular storm surround how much moisture is associated with the system and when and how quickly the storm intensifies. But, in general, a 2-5 inch snowfall is likely across Western Massachusetts, although - and this is where it gets interesting - models are also hinting at the potential for a heavier band of snow to setup within the Winter Weather Advisory area (which includes us). If this were to occur, it could create an area of snowfall greater than 5 inches in some places within this area. The timing of the heavier snow band formation could be during the late afternoon and into the evening. We'll keep an eye on things, of course, and let you know what develops. And as always, stay safe out there!

Alberta Clipper Headed Our Way for Tuesday

Snow Glitter, Amherst MA
(Photo by S. Vardatira) 

Now that you've cleared the snow off your driveways, cars, and walkways, and have finally settled in for the evening, I thought it would be the perfect time to let you know that, uh, more snow is coming. An Alberta Clipper is forecast to come through on Tuesday, bringing along a few more inches - around 3". Everything warms up a tad - up to 43 degrees - for the end of the week and weekend before dipping back below freezing. Even with some melting, there's enough around that a white Christmas seems likely!

By the way, the official snow total for North Amherst, as of 7 am this morning was 6.8 inches.

First Snow Excitement

Screen shot from Facebook feed today, 12/14/2013 - at about 8am
(Click on image for clearer detail)

Just want to mention that the weather community's excitement at having a bona fide, gathering winter storm to report on is palpable and infectious. Live reports, computer generated isobar maps flying all over the place, Skywarn alerts, warnings up, and predictions at every turn. You have to remind yourself that it's likely only 6-10 inches of snow, really nothing we haven't seen or dealt with before. And then, once you've done the grown-up reality-check thing, just enjoy. We are about to be blanketed in fluffy, soft flakes of crystalline water - what's not utterly amazing about that? (Hey, it's still the first snow... no need to look further ahead than that!)

Talkin' Winter Storm Warning

Contemplating the first snow
(Photo by M.D., Amherst MA - 2/2013)

All week, you’ve been hearing that something big is on the way. Most likely you’ve also been spreading the news. Let’s face it, talking about the weather is a way of life in New England – and when a storm is brewing, it’s topic number one everywhere. I was reminded of this on Tuesday, when I stepped onto an elevator and into this four-way conversation:

Person #1:     Cold enough out there for you?

Person #2:     Brrrr. So cold.

Person #3:     Getting colder the end of the week.

Me:                 By Thursday, it’s going to feel like the Arctic.

Person #3:     You hear about the storm coming this weekend?

Person #2:     Of course. We might get a foot.

Me:                 First big storm of the season, in December no less.

Person #3:     What does that mean for the rest of the season?

Person #2:     Get out the shovels.

Person #1:     Hey, we got shovels. This is New England, after all.

Get out the shovels indeed. Now the thing we’ve been talking about all week is official – a Winter Storm Watch has now been issued for our area, as well as most of Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and New Hampshire. Snow is expected to overspread southern New England starting late Saturday afternoon, becoming steadier and heavier Saturday night into Sunday morning before tapering off Sunday afternoon. Although the Amherst area is most likely to see an all-snow event, snow will likely change to sleet and freezing rain for a period of time from late Saturday night into Sunday morning across Connecticut, Rhode Island and possibly as far north as the Mass Pike including the Greater Boston area.

[NOTE: Update as of Friday evening, 12/13: 
Our winter storm watch is now a winter storm warning. In effect from 1 pm tomorrow, Saturday, until 1 pm on Sunday. Predictions are for 6-10 inches around our area. Note that this is slightly earlier than previously forecast, so you may want to get your essential activities out of the way earlier in the day if possible. Snow is expected to overspread the region by afternoon, though the heaviest will fall in the overnight hours.]

This is a classic nor’easter, so this system will also bring winds from the northeast of 15-25 MPH with gusts up to 35 mph. The strongest winds will be in the coastal areas, across Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts. Meanwhile temps will be in the 20s but rising into the lower and mid-30s across Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts where visibility will also be significantly reduced due to wind and heavy snow.

Although there is still some uncertainty about how much we will get here in the Pioneer Valley, the forecast is currently predicting 6-12 inches. One thing is definite – travel will become difficult and treacherous by late Saturday, so plan accordingly.

Snowfall probability for the weekend, as of Friday morning
National Weather Service, Taunton Office

Look for our Winter Storm Watch to become a Winter Storm Warning over the next day, as we get closer to the main event.

Top Gifts for Weather Enthusiasts (updated for 2018)

If you are looking for that perfect gift for the weather enthusiast in your life (or yourself), look no further. Updated for 2013, our Head in the Clouds Amherst list of “Top Gifts for Weather Enthusiasts” includes THE BASICS (essential tools for the weather watcher), BOOKS AND CALENDAR, and BEYOND BOOKS AND BASICS (for the weather enthusiast who has just about everything else). With a few exceptions, we have focused on the more affordable items out there, with most under $100, and many under $30.

THE BASICS (core requirements for the weather obsessed)

1. Weather Station (under $30 to over $1,000)

A must-have for any weather enthusiast, the home weather station can be purchased for a range of prices, from under $30 to upwards of $1,000. For an affordable weather station, we recommend Ambient Weather’s most popular desktop weather station; it costs $66 and is packed with features. The unit uses an outdoor sensor to monitor both indoor and outdoor temperature and humidity, outdoor dew point, as well as barometric pressure (both sea-level and measured), and features a pressure history chart to track trends (barograph). The forecast icons let you know at a glance if it’s going to be rainy, cloudy, or sunny based on barometric pressure trends.

2. Rain Gauge ($5 to over $100)

Rain gauges can be purchased for under $10 to over $100. Those of us who are accustomed to walking outside to get a visual reading will surely appreciate the newer, high tech wireless models. (I for one can’t possibly justify purchasing one for myself, but I wouldn’t return the gift if one came my way!)  Wireless models like the one we’ve linked to icollect data then transmits via a wireless signal to the included console. The console displays many weather variables such as; the daily rainfall, indoor/outdoor temperature and indoor/outdoor humidity. A storm alert indicator will display whenever there is a drop in the barometric pressure which signifies the possibly of an approaching storm. And all that for $50 (on sale now). Of course, you can also get a basic, plastic rain gauge from your local hardware store for less than $5. It makes a great stocking stuffer, and it also comes with the added exercise benefit of forcing you to walk outside to get a reading.

3. Hand-Held Wind Meter (under $100 to over $1,000)

Like the weather station, hand-held anemometers come in a wide range of prices from under $100 to over $1,000. The most basic ones, like the one we’ve linked to here for $74, will allow you to measure wind speed (and sometimes temperature), while the pricier ones provide a whole range of other features, such as heat stress meters, hygrometer, digital compass, onscreen notification of dangerous conditions, ballistics meters, etc.  For most of us, the lower tech models will suffice just fine, and they can be purchased for under $100 (you can probably even find them on eBay for under $20). This is the perfect piece of equipment, not just for the weather obsessed, but also for model plane pilots, wind surfers, and other outdoor enthusiasts that rely on accurate wind speed information.  

4. Midland Emergency Crank Weather Alert Radio ($45)

There are numerous variations of the emergency alert radio, but regardless of what you end up with, make sure it enables you to access an alternative power source (such as a hand crank). We like this model for its versatility – it includes a flashlight, AM/FM Radio, 4 sources of power (alkaline batteries, AC adapter, crank, or rechargeable battery), alarm clock, and thermometer with freeze alert. It can also be charged from a USB connector. The digital tuner accesses news and weather information, and it also has an alert mode, which will activate the weather band while in standby mode when a weather alert is active in the local area. 

5. Twister (the Movie) (DVD, $14.00)

This is such a basic weather enthusiast experience that we actually hesitated to include it here – seriously, is there anyone among us who has not seen this film more times than we can count?  However, on the off chance that your weather enthusiast doesn’t actually own Twister, let this serve as a strong recommendation.  Directed by Jan De Bont (director of Speed), Twister is our favorite natural disaster film ever.  The story centers around a day of record-breaking tornadoes in Oklahoma and a storm chasing team’s attempts to deploy DOROTHY (a gizmo designed to release thousands of tiny sensors when a tornado passes over it) in hopes of recording scientific evidence and devising an earlier warning system. The team is led by former romantic partners Jo (Helen Hunt) and Bill (Bill Paxton), and the supporting cast includes Cary Elwes and Phillip Seymour Hoffman.  There are laughs along the way, and quotable lines abound. As one reviewer commented, “The skies are threatening, the landscape sweeping, and cows and tractors flying through the air will remind you of that other famous Hollywood cyclone. No one ends up in Oz here, but Twister has a magic all its own.”

Books & Calendar

6. Soul of the Sky, ($12.95) compiled and edited by: Dave Thurlow & Ralph Adler

Soul of the Sky is a different kind of weather book. It’s not preoccupied with charting fronts, defining what an isobar is, or trying to get you to memorize the conversion formula from degrees Centigrade to degrees Fahrenheit. Instead, it's a collection that illustrates how the weather can inspire and terrify, connect and urge us on to new adventures, and invite us to gain a deeper appreciation of how weather and climate affect our everyday lives. This take on weather is close to our hearts here at Head in the Clouds Amherst. The anthology includes essays by a wide variety of renowned and some less-known authors. Published by Mount Washington Observatory, this paperback is a solid 150 pages. Can also be purchased from Barnes and Noble, Amazon, and other sellers.

7. Cat in the Clouds (16.99), by Eric Pinder with illustrations by T.B.R. Walsh

In this children’s book, stray cat Nin drifts from house to house until he meets a meteorologist named Mark. Then Nin begins his greatest journey yet- to the top of Mount Washington. Readers follow Nin to a land where the wind howls, snow swirls and wild bears roam. At the Mount Washington Observatory, Nin learns that  a wonderful home can be found anywhere, even high above the clouds. Hard cover, 32 pages, softcover, and is also free with Kindle Unlimited.

8. The Art of Weather Photography – A Comprehensive Guide for Beginners: Capture Weather Photographs Like a Professional ($7.99 Kindle; $8.99 Barnes and Noble; and also available through other booksellers), by Jacci Ingham. 

Australian Weather and Nature photographer, Jacci Ingham, shares her passion for chasing storms and reveals her secrets of mastering the art of weather photography. In this comprehensive guide, Jacci provides everything you need to know about capturing your own landscape and lightning images. She explains the equipment used, and details the camera settings for the various times of day and meteorological conditions. This book is suitable for all ages. It contains a useful glossary to help the novice reader and covers definitions of common terms, acronyms and popular jargon used by storm photographers

9. Weather Forecasting Quick Reference Card ($9.99, Davis Instruments)

This handy plastic card shows the use of wind direction, barometric pressure, and cloud type in predicting the weather, plus a full list of radio weather stations for official broadcasts, key information on storm warnings, hurricane avoidance, navigating in fog and other hazardous conditions, and more. Weatherproof high-strength plastic, full color both sides. Punched for binder or bulkhead mounting.

Dimensions: 8½" x 11" (216 x 279 mm).

10. Head in the Clouds Amherst 2019 Wall Calendar  ($17.80 per calendar, and can be ordered directly from this link)

This is a bit of shameless self-promotion of our own limited-edition calendar, but we’re pretty sure you’ll have no trouble finding the weather and cloud calendars that can be purchased far and wide everywhere. In the meantime, we offer you something unique and specific to our local area. New this year, the Head in the Clouds Amherst 2019 Wall Calendar features 12 nature photos taken in Amherst by local residents and visitors. In addition, our calendar notes major holidays, as well as astronomical events visible from North America with the naked eye (full moon, new moon, meteor showers, and more). And, in a unique twist that you won't find anywhere else, our calendar also documents over 60 major weather events that occurred in Amherst and New England between 1660 and 2018. Full size when open is 17" high and 11" wide.  Buy here ($17.80/calendar, including postage) for delivery by mail, or purchase at Hastings or Simple Gifts Farm Store (in Amherst MA). 

BEYOND BOOKS AND BASICS

Unique, unusual and over-the-top gifts for the weather enthusiast who has everything else!

11. Strike Alert II Personal Lightning Detector ($68)

The StrikeAlert II is one of the most affordable and easy-to-use personal lightning detectors. It provides an early warning of approaching lightning strikes from as far away as 40 miles. An audible alarm sounds when there's a strike, and a corresponding LED light illuminates accordingly at lightning distances of 20-40 miles, 12-24 miles, 6-12 miles and within 6 miles. The detector is housed in a small pager-like casing that can be clipped on a belt loop and runs on two AAA batteries.  This allows the user to see all the lightning activity within a 40 mile range, giving clearer visibility to the nearest strike in the last two minutes. Perfect for weather and outdoor enthusiasts and anyone who frequents outdoor sporting and recreational events.

12. Night Sky Alerts ($5.99/month)

Astronomy Alert Service - Sign up for this service and you'll be notified when things are happening in the night sky. You'll never miss another geomagnetic storm, meteor shower, planetary convergence or visible space station flyby. Currently being used by lsky watchers in over 25 countries!.

13. Mount Washington Observatory Summit Day Trip (Members: $429 and Non-Members $499)

Summit a snow-covered peak in a day? With Mount Washington Observatory Day Trips, you can. A thrilling snowcat ride will take you to the top of the tallest peak in the Northeast where you can spend the day reveling in the mountain's legendary weather and scenery. A highlight of the visit is a guided tour of the Mount Washington Observatory's famous mountaintop weather station and the opportunity to meet the scientists living and working in this remote outpost. Then, after a hearty, homemade lunch, you'll head back down the mountain before nightfall. If you're looking a true alpine adventure in a one-day format, this is the trip for you.

14. Weather Spotter’s Field Guide ($0 if you have access to a free printer)

We here at Head in the Clouds Amherst do our best to find something for every budget. Those gifting with limited cash on hand might consider printing out some of the excellent open-source information available on the web - and giving that to the weather buffs in your life. Even if the recipient is an official Skywarn Spotter, they are unlikely to have actually read this field guide. And if they aren't an official Skywarn Spotter, even better - you can let them know how to join up by sending them here.

And after all that, if this list still isn’t enough for you, check out our 2012 Top 10 Gifts for the Weather Obsessed for more ideas (though likely many of the links are out of date by now). 

The first (accumulating) fall of snow

Snow coming soon to our neck of the woods!
(The image is real, the animation added just for fun)
Photo of Puffer's Pond, by S. Vardatira, 12/1/2013

The first fall of snow is not only an event, it is a magical event. You go to bed in one kind of a world and wake up in another quite different, and if this is not enchantment then where is it to be found?

J. B. Priestley 

Have your shovels ready, snow is in the forecast! A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for our area for snow starting around 6 PM this evening and continuing to 6 am EST Saturday. Locations include western and central Massachusetts north of the Massachusetts Turnpike and west of I-495. Expect accumulations of 2 to 4 inches along with a trace of ice. Localized accumulations of 5 or 6 inches possible in the east slopes of the Berkshires. The precipitation is likely to start as rain, changing quickly over to sleet and then snow this evening. Brief heavy snow is possible. Meanwhile, temperatures will fall into the upper 20s - that's nearly a 30 degree drop from Friday morning to Friday night.

Venus and Moon Bright in the Evening Sky

Graphic from EarthSky.org

Outside RIGHT NOW - golden sliver of moon is suspended over the southwest horizon, with Venus higher than the moon and bright in the sky, same general direction. (You can't miss Venus, it's the brightest point of light out there.) And with a good pair of binoculars, you will even be able to watch the changing phases of Venus over the next few days. Although Venus’ phase is waning in the evening sky right now, the forecast calls for Venus to be at its greatest brilliance in the evening sky in a few more days.

Comet ISON, R.I.P.

Bad news for those of us who have been looking forward to seeing Comet ISON make a spectacular and rare appearance in the night and daytime sky. As reported by spaceweather.com, Comet ISON is now just a cloud of dust following it's Thanksgiving Day brush with solar fire. Experts currently believe ISON broke apart shortly before perihelion (its closest approach to the sun).

These images from NASA's Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory and the ESA/NASA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory show the comet fading rapidly before it vanishes behind the sun's disk. It emerges as a diffuse remnant of its former self, evaporating quickly into a shadow of its former self. By the end of November 28th, Comet ISON was spent. 

As of today (December 2), the cloud of debris that once was Comet ISON is no brighter than a star of approximately 8th magnitude. Experienced astrophotographers might be able to capture the comet's fading "ghost" with a telescope in the pre-dawn sky in early December. Otherwise, Comet ISON will not be visible in the night sky this month. Now, in addition to pouring over data collected on Comet ISON as it made its way towards the sun in the past year, researchers will also be asking what exactly happened to bring ISON to its unexpectedly rapid demise.

ISON coming towards Sun (on right), and going away from Sun (on left)
(Photo by NASA)

According to the NASA website, "Throughout the year that researchers have watched Comet ISON – and especially during its final approach to the sun – the comet brightened and dimmed in unexpected ways.  Such brightness changes usually occur in response to material boiling off the comet, and different material will do so at different temperatures thus providing clues as to what the comet is made of.  Analyzing this pattern will help scientists understand the composition of ISON, which contains material assembled during the very formation of the solar system some 4.5 billion years ago."