When, Where and How Much Snow on Tuesday?

Sign of things to come this winter?
(Photo from February 2011, by S.Vardatira)

Confused about the conflicting predictions for Tuesday's storm?  While it's true that over the weekend it was looking pretty minor, by late Monday the computer models aligned around something a little more substantive for our area. Here's what we know:

By Tuesday, a storm system will be moving into the area from the west and intensifying offshore of Southern New England. The storm will bring plowable snowfall and a general snow accumulation of 2-5" to much of Southern New England. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for our area and almost all of Massachusetts, except for Cape Cod and the Islands where a mix of snow and rain will keep amounts lower and in the coating to 2 inch range. Impact on our morning commute should be minor, with snow starting near the end of or just after the morning commute. The evening commute will likely see direct impact.

The uncertainties with this particular storm surround how much moisture is associated with the system and when and how quickly the storm intensifies. But, in general, a 2-5 inch snowfall is likely across Western Massachusetts, although - and this is where it gets interesting - models are also hinting at the potential for a heavier band of snow to setup within the Winter Weather Advisory area (which includes us). If this were to occur, it could create an area of snowfall greater than 5 inches in some places within this area. The timing of the heavier snow band formation could be during the late afternoon and into the evening. We'll keep an eye on things, of course, and let you know what develops. And as always, stay safe out there!