Temperature relief, weekend mix, and storm rumblings

Frost on inside of window, January 2014

Good news folks - temperatures climb out of the single digits today, with a high of 30 and... wait for it... wait for it... highs in the low 40s tomorrow and the weekend! High temps drop back to the 20s by the end of next week, but no more single digit highs for the forseeable future. As for precipitation, we will be getting a wintry mix transitioning to rain Saturday into Sunday, but no major storm this weekend. But winter is far from over - according to today's National Weather Service forecast discussion, "A significant storm is growing likely for Wednesday."

Random weather thoughts on a January morning

* Snow showers and squalls will be moving through New England, west to east, today  - around here, expect most of the action this afternoon and evening. Some areas will get more snow than others - akin to the way a regional summer thundershower can drench some areas and not others. We are forecast to get approximately an inch locally (with some variation, of course). Highs will be in the 20s (it's actually a balmy 23 degrees right now!) and snow may melt on roads and then refreeze as temperatures fall, creating slippery conditions for some communities Saturday evening. Mostly, we should be just fine.

* It's been strange weather across the country. Intractable drought in California, with residents being asked to ration water consumption. And yesterday morning, Louisiana picked up over 3 inches of snow as an ice/snow storm hit coastal areas in the Gulf.

Throwing Caution to the Wind (artist unknown)

* Throwing caution to the wind (because it's really too early to know anything with certainty), I feel compelled to point out that some major wintry event seems to be headed our way for next weekend (February 1-3). What exactly we will get is constantly changing (yesterday it was freezing rain and sleet, today it's snow and wintry mix), but clearly something wintry this way comes.

* Anyone who's out on the ocean today - off the New England coast - should prepare for freezing spray, along with gale force winds. In other words, don't take the boat out!

* Again, it's worth repeating that the temperature is 23.3 F right now. Crazy! We haven't seen a temp that high in days (and it's feels like a lot longer). Time to play outside!

Musing on summer in the dead of winter

On "Wind Chill Warning" days like this, I always enjoy reflecting on what I wear in the summer to bring garbage to the curb for the weekly pickup - light pants, short sleeved shirt, and whatever shoes (and sometimes flip-flops) are handy. For this morning's 10 minute chore, I donned my warmest lined pants, fleece jacket, thick socks, heavy boots, faux fur heavy coat (pre-warmed by cat), thickest pair of gloves available, lined bomber hat, wool scarf, and stablicers (because that thinnest coating of snow is slippery, especially where it hides small ice patches). Then, as I was struck breathless by the cold wind, I tried to imagine summer. By the way, mittens will be better today than gloves. Ten minutes later, and my fingers were already feeling the cold.

Coastal Storm to Bring Snow and Bitter Cold

Mackenzie contemplating new snowfall (2010)
No, we will not be waking up to scenes like this tomorrow!

There’s nothing quite like waking up to a “Blizzard/Storm Coordination Message” from the regional Skywarn office in Taunton. Forget breakfast, there is weather to anticipate! Of course, this is one of those situations where location is everything, and unless you pay attention to local news only, you may end up with an incredibly distorted picture of what is coming our way. Blizzard warnings are now up for portions of Southeast Coastal Massachusetts, specifically Eastern and Southern Plymouth County and Cape Cod and the Islands from 7 PM Tuesday evening through 1 PM Wednesday afternoon. These coastal areas are looking at 8-14 inches of snow, sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH, and potentially isolated higher wind gusts at the height of the storm with blizzard conditions. But we are not going to see conditions anything like that here across most of Western Massachusetts. Still, this storm does seem to be hugging closer to the coast than computer models were predicting last week and yesterday, so even though this storm’s impact diminishes significantly from east to west and points north, we are now in the zone for some significant snowfall. Bottom line:

• A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 1 PM Tuesday afternoon to 1 PM Wednesday afternoon for Eastern Hampshire and Eastern Hampden Counties for 4-8 inches of snow and wind gusts up to 30 MPH.
• A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for Franklin, Western Hampden and Western Hampshire Counties of Massachusetts for 4-6" of snow and wind gusts to 20 MPH.

And even more intense than any snowfall, it’s going to be COLD. A Wind Chill Advisory is now in effect from 10 PM Tuesday night to 10 AM Wednesday morning for Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Worcester, Central and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts and Tolland and Windham Counties of Connecticut and Cheshire and West-Central Hillsborough Counties of Southern New Hampshire for wind chill readings between -15 and -24 degrees below zero. Areas outside of the Wind Chill Advisory will also be bitterly cold with wind chill readings below zero over portions of tonight and Wednesday morning.

The good news is that the extreme cold will mean lighter and fluffier snow, with conditions similar to what was experienced during the storm of early January 2014. Isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages will be possible along the Southeast Massachusetts coast line and Cape Cod and the Islands but the extent of any damage from a wind perspective is expected to be fairly minimal. Still, be prepared and stay warm out there!

Black Ice Morning

Word to the wise this morning - although driveways, roads, and sidewalks may look dry and ice free this morning, it isn't necessarily so. Just stepped out on what looked like a completely dry driveway only to realize there was an incredibly thin coating of ice over everything, making it just slippery enough. (That's why they call it black ice, right?) Headed back inside to fetch my "stablicers" (studs for shoes/boots), and had no trouble after that. Ice is nothing to fool around with - just this weekend, a friend took a fall on the ice and suffered a concussion. Macho will only get you so far. Ice usually wins. Be careful out there.

Driving through yesterday's rain and fog

For our friends and neighbors vacationing right now in some sunny part of the world - see the delightful weather you're missing? (Now go enjoy that beach.)

Driving through the rain and fog around 2 pm on Saturday, January 11, 2014

Yesterday was a study in how quickly New England weather can change. In most of Western Massachusetts, the morning started at 30F degrees with freezing rain (and everything a sheet of ice) and ended with pouring rain, wind, and temperatures in the 50s. Fog moved in mid-way through the day, along with some sporadic thunderstorms. This scene was captured while traveling south on Route 116 in Amherst.

Freezing rain to thunderstorms - all in a New England day!

Photo from National Weather Station

Freezing everything (rain, drizzle, fog) right now at 8:00 am on Saturday. Following overnight freezing rain - thanks to the temps hovering around 30-31 degrees all night - most driveways and secondary roads are a treacherous sheet of ice. (I can't get out beyond to see what the more traveled roads look like, and I'm in no hurry.) To compound matters, we now have dense fog, continuing drizzle, and in short order we could also have thunderstorms! Yup, you heard that right. The temps are going to be climbing up to the mid-50s this afternoon, which will rid us of the ice-covered roads, fortunately. But along with the temperature shift comes a major storm, with wind, heavy rain, and maybe even thunderstorms. In other words, another exciting, unpredictable weather day in New England!

Here’s today's official forecast:
Today’s strong storm system – which arrived with a period of light freezing rain overnight – will change to heavy rain and strong winds today with the potential for flooding due to poor drainage (all that ice/snow getting in the way), ice jam-related river/stream flooding, and isolated tree and wire damage from strong winds. A Freezing Rain Advisory was in effect last night, at first through 6 am this morning, but not surprisingly, that time has now been extended to 10 am, as the temperature is still below 32 degrees now, and no great melting is happening at the moment.  A Flood Watch is in effect for our area (and many other parts of New England) from 1 pm today until 5 pm Sunday.  This will exacerbate the poor drainage and ice jam-related flooding, of course. And, finally, a Wind Advisory is also in effect for the Cape and Island. Hang onto your hats and umbrellas everyone, it’s going to be a wild day!

On storm hype naysayers and what's yet to come

Snow over Cushman Brook - Morning 1/2/2014
Photo by S. Vardatira

At 7:00 AM  on Thursday, with the first light of day barely seeping through the darker-than-usual morning sky, there's already an inch of powdery snow on the ground. Outside is a tableau of ice grey-blue to white. The Skywarn office in Taunton MA (our local National Weather Service office) - which oversees all of Southern New England, including this storm's coastal "blizzard warning" areas - has issued four statements over the past two days about the storm that is now moving into place for today through tomorrow. Some people seem to mistake the frequency and intensity of all the weather alerts as simply meteorologists "hyping" a storm. Invariably someone will complain, "It's only an inch (or 2,3,5, etc.), why are the schools closing? What's wrong people, it's just a little snow?!" Whole threads on Facebook get bogged down with people swearing about the schools closing, or becoming hysterical about the weather hype, which is, in their opinion, groundless. And then there's all the rest of us, more than delighted with nature making its presence known.

For the naysayers and doubters out there, chill out (not like you have any choice in the matter, as chilly is our natural state right now). Keep in mind that some of the reports we're hearing cover areas that really will have blizzard conditions, even if that's not in the forecast for the Pioneer Valley. And don't mistake excitement about a weather "happening" for fear. For many of us, a snowstorm is just nature calling us out of our everyday ordinary. And that's something special.

If you, like us, enjoy anticipating a storm as much as the main event (and maybe even more), here's what to expect the rest of today and tomorrow, courtesy of Taunton's Skywarn Spotter office. Notice, in particular, the delightful, and at times repetitive, patter of weather speak and unique capitalization rules (keep in mind that the brunt of this storm will be felt along the coast, although we are still expected to get 8-14 inches of snow around here). 

Snow will begin Thursday Morning. At first snow will be steadiest north of the Mass. Pike during the day with accumulations of 2-5" by Thursday Evening. South of the Mass. Pike, there will be some snow during the day but there could be a lull during the late morning and afternoon hours with 1-3" of snow accumulation. As we get into Thursday Night, steadier and heavier snow will move into the region and last into early Friday Morning, and it’s during this timeframe where near-blizzard conditions could occur along East Coastal and South Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands before becoming more intermittent and ending later Friday Morning into the afternoon. By the time the storm winds down midday Friday, total snowfall of 8-14 is expected pretty much across the entire region with isolated higher amounts in East Coastal and Southeast Massachusetts and Cape Cod. Across the islands of Block Island Rhode Island, Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket, 6-10" of snow is expected.

As mentioned above, near Blizzard conditions are possible along portions of the Eastern Massachusetts coast line including Cape Cod and the Islands as sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH will be possible. Inland, winds of 10-20 MPH with gusts of 30 MPH are possible. While near blizzard conditions will be possible due to the strong winds and heavy snow along the coast, the snow is still right now expected to be a lighter and fluffier snow, and winds are still not expected to be as strong as the February 2013 blizzard. Isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages will be possible along the Eastern Massachusetts coast line and Cape Cod and the Islands but the extent of any damage from a wind perspective is still right now expected to be less than the February 2013 blizzard. This will continue to be monitored and it’s possible some areas may actually reach blizzard criteria defined as sustained or frequent winds of 35 mph or higher with considerable falling and/or blowing snow that frequently reduces visibility to 1/4 of a mile or less for at least a 3 hour period. Like with any larger storm, it is always good to be prepared and have any battery operated and generator equipment prepared just in case and if it’s not needed, you will be better prepared for the next major storm.

[All the rest of this is about coastal areas only, so stop reading if it doesn’t apply to you.] A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from 10 AM-4 PM Thursday for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands for minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide. A Coastal Flood Watch remains effect for East Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands for Thursday Evening through Friday Afternoon for the potential of widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tides late night Thursday and midday Friday. Tides are astronomically high and this coupled with a long period of onshore winds will create the threat of minor to moderate coastal flooding. If the storm were to slow down over the course of Friday, the midday Friday high tide could have the highest concerns for more significant coastal flooding meaning the potential for major coastal flooding and a widespread moderate coastal flood event particularly south of Boston along East Coastal Massachusetts and this will be monitored.

Latest storm track puts most of Western MA in the "heaviest snow" zone!

The cloud cover has shifted over the last hour, and we have a definite "snow sky." Gotta love this map if you love playing in the snow. But you're probably not quite so enthralled if you were looking forward to school starting up again. It's possible school may be in session tomorrow, very doubtful for Friday.

This map definitely qualifies as weather porn. Just saying!

Happy New Year 2014!

Here's to starry nights and partly cloudy skies in 2014! 

(Yes, you read that right - we're not fans of "blue sky thinking" around here - clouds make it way more interesting!)