On storm hype naysayers and what's yet to come

Snow over Cushman Brook - Morning 1/2/2014
Photo by S. Vardatira

At 7:00 AM  on Thursday, with the first light of day barely seeping through the darker-than-usual morning sky, there's already an inch of powdery snow on the ground. Outside is a tableau of ice grey-blue to white. The Skywarn office in Taunton MA (our local National Weather Service office) - which oversees all of Southern New England, including this storm's coastal "blizzard warning" areas - has issued four statements over the past two days about the storm that is now moving into place for today through tomorrow. Some people seem to mistake the frequency and intensity of all the weather alerts as simply meteorologists "hyping" a storm. Invariably someone will complain, "It's only an inch (or 2,3,5, etc.), why are the schools closing? What's wrong people, it's just a little snow?!" Whole threads on Facebook get bogged down with people swearing about the schools closing, or becoming hysterical about the weather hype, which is, in their opinion, groundless. And then there's all the rest of us, more than delighted with nature making its presence known.

For the naysayers and doubters out there, chill out (not like you have any choice in the matter, as chilly is our natural state right now). Keep in mind that some of the reports we're hearing cover areas that really will have blizzard conditions, even if that's not in the forecast for the Pioneer Valley. And don't mistake excitement about a weather "happening" for fear. For many of us, a snowstorm is just nature calling us out of our everyday ordinary. And that's something special.

If you, like us, enjoy anticipating a storm as much as the main event (and maybe even more), here's what to expect the rest of today and tomorrow, courtesy of Taunton's Skywarn Spotter office. Notice, in particular, the delightful, and at times repetitive, patter of weather speak and unique capitalization rules (keep in mind that the brunt of this storm will be felt along the coast, although we are still expected to get 8-14 inches of snow around here). 

Snow will begin Thursday Morning. At first snow will be steadiest north of the Mass. Pike during the day with accumulations of 2-5" by Thursday Evening. South of the Mass. Pike, there will be some snow during the day but there could be a lull during the late morning and afternoon hours with 1-3" of snow accumulation. As we get into Thursday Night, steadier and heavier snow will move into the region and last into early Friday Morning, and it’s during this timeframe where near-blizzard conditions could occur along East Coastal and South Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands before becoming more intermittent and ending later Friday Morning into the afternoon. By the time the storm winds down midday Friday, total snowfall of 8-14 is expected pretty much across the entire region with isolated higher amounts in East Coastal and Southeast Massachusetts and Cape Cod. Across the islands of Block Island Rhode Island, Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket, 6-10" of snow is expected.

As mentioned above, near Blizzard conditions are possible along portions of the Eastern Massachusetts coast line including Cape Cod and the Islands as sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH will be possible. Inland, winds of 10-20 MPH with gusts of 30 MPH are possible. While near blizzard conditions will be possible due to the strong winds and heavy snow along the coast, the snow is still right now expected to be a lighter and fluffier snow, and winds are still not expected to be as strong as the February 2013 blizzard. Isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages will be possible along the Eastern Massachusetts coast line and Cape Cod and the Islands but the extent of any damage from a wind perspective is still right now expected to be less than the February 2013 blizzard. This will continue to be monitored and it’s possible some areas may actually reach blizzard criteria defined as sustained or frequent winds of 35 mph or higher with considerable falling and/or blowing snow that frequently reduces visibility to 1/4 of a mile or less for at least a 3 hour period. Like with any larger storm, it is always good to be prepared and have any battery operated and generator equipment prepared just in case and if it’s not needed, you will be better prepared for the next major storm.

[All the rest of this is about coastal areas only, so stop reading if it doesn’t apply to you.] A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from 10 AM-4 PM Thursday for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands for minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide. A Coastal Flood Watch remains effect for East Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands for Thursday Evening through Friday Afternoon for the potential of widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tides late night Thursday and midday Friday. Tides are astronomically high and this coupled with a long period of onshore winds will create the threat of minor to moderate coastal flooding. If the storm were to slow down over the course of Friday, the midday Friday high tide could have the highest concerns for more significant coastal flooding meaning the potential for major coastal flooding and a widespread moderate coastal flood event particularly south of Boston along East Coastal Massachusetts and this will be monitored.