Waiting for the Blizzard of 2015?

Boston Globe photo of Route 128, Blizzard of '78

A WINTER STORM WATCH  & STORM UPDATE FOR MONDAY-WEDNESDAY.  You undoubtedly already have your eye on this coming week’s storm, but I would be remiss not to add a little local perspective to the avalanche (or would that be “snowstorm”?) of information coming your way.  It’s being called “historic,” with a set-up something akin to the Blizzard of ’78. Weather forecasters do not say this lightly – in Massachusetts these days, the Blizzard of ’78 is the bar against which all other snowstorms are measured. But part of what made the Blizzard of ’78 so dangerous was that it caught a lot of people off guard. Remember photos of all those cars stranded on highways and byways in feet of snow? Houses sucked into the ocean? Trapped in and around your house for days? Fortunately, weather forecasting has come a long way in the last four decades, and this time around Harvey Leonard isn't the only weather forecaster seeing it coming. So before you criticize forecasters for over-hyping the weather to boost their station’s ratings, keep in mind that storms like this can be lethal. Keeping hundreds of people from being stranded on the Mass Pike or falling into the ocean will be all the difference, hopefully, between The Blizzard of ’78 and what is shaping up to be the Blizzard of 2015.

Homes ravaged by the storm along
Peggotty Beach, Scituate,
 Blizzard of '78
Photo unattributed found here 

 That being said, we are not in danger of falling into the ocean here, and with some common sense (don’t drive during the storm and prepare for possible outages) just about everyone around here should be able to “weather” this just fine.  

So here are the highlights:

First, according to NOAA, a “major and potentially historic winter storm” will affect our region Monday night into Tuesday night, even continuing into early Wednesday. The worst of the storm looks to occur Monday night into Tuesday afternoon, during which time “travel may become impossible and life threatening.”

The signs are pretty much a textbook case for a major winter storm/blizzard in Southern New England, as low pressure bombs out and tracks up the New England coast. This highly amplified pattern will allow for a slow moving/long duration storm. In addition, high pressure across Eastern Canada will supply plenty of cold air for the storm to work with. Drier weather follows Wednesday into early Thursday, but we will have to watch for another chance of snow by the end of the work week.  (Late January through February typically brings our biggest storms, so more storms on the horizon should be no surprise, right?)

Like the Blizzard of ’78, Tuesday’s coastal storm will likely have the strongest impact on the eastern part of the state and coastal areas, which are currently under a Blizzard Watch. The eastern part of the state will likely see 1-2 feet of snow or more, damaging winds (mostly on the Cape and Islands), and significant coastal flooding. Almost all of Massachusetts is at “ground zero for the heaviest snow.” The models are in very good agreement, all showing 1 to 2 feet of snow for much of the region, including around here. There may even be areas (mostly higher elevations) that exceed 2 feet where localized banding sets up. Damaging northeast wind gusts of 45 to 60 mph will be felt across eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island, with gusts between 60 to 70 mph expected across the Cape and Islands.

A WINTER STORM WATCH has been issued for Central and Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut, where 1-2 feet of snow is expected. It’s possible this may be upgraded to a Blizzard Watch/Warning, but it’s too early to know for sure how much wind will mix across our region. If the storm tracks to the east, the highest snow amounts may never materialize around here, and if it tracks to the west, we’ll get even more snow. (The track presents an even more tricky forecast scenario for the Cape and Islands, which could be either all rain or all snow based on the storm track.)

By the time the storm comes to an end early Wednesday morning and the cleanup begins, we may already be anticipating another winter storm later Thursday or Friday. Fun times, right? (And we really do mean that!)