Snow tomorrow, but no need to panic

Leaf on Ice, 1/22/2015 (N. Amherst MA)
Photo by S. Vardatira

If you've been watching weather forecasts, you may well be thinking "The Big One" is about to descend on us. So take a deep breath and remind yourself that everything you are hearing does NOT necessarily apply to Hampshire County. No, the timing of the tides will have absolutely no effect on us (unless you are on the Cape tomorrow), and we are not - at least by the current computer models - going to get walloped like the folks in the Worcester Hills. That being said, the computer models have not exactly been dependable for us this winter. How many forecasts for warm, balmy, rainy weather have actually turned out to be an entire day of freezing rain? So, once again, don't bet your snow shovels on this forecast. There's a high degree of uncertainty, which is somewhat unusual this close to the main event. In other words, be prepared for anything, but don't panic.

Right now, a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY has been issued for our area (western Hampden, Hampshire and eastern Franklin Counties), in effect from midnight tonight to 7 PM Saturday. Since yesterday, computer models have sped up the onset of precipitation and storm impacts to the entire region. In addition, models now have this weekend's system running slightly closer to the coast - meaning somewhat more snow here than predicted yesterday. But there is still a great deal of uncertainty on snow amounts and where the rain/snow/mix transition line of precipitation will be. 

Based on current model trends - and keep in mind that this could change in any direction - we are expected to get somewhere in the vicinity of 4-6" of snow. Snowfall amounts fall off quickly to our north and west (western Franklin County is currently expected to receive just 1-3" of snow). What makes our 4-6" amount interesting (and more annoying than you might imagine) is that snowfall will be heavy and wet, which will likely cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. So keep all that in mind as you plan for Saturday. And keep positive - so far, freezing rain has not entered into the mix of possibilities tomorrow. And I'll take it!