Weekend Storm Buzz (and what to expect in Amherst)

Frost on the Window, by S.Vardatira

No need to let you know that cold air is well in place over Amherst/Western MA right now. If you haven’t figured that out yet, there’s a good chance you’re spending New Year’s Day on a sunny beach somewhere well south of here. The big weather question on everyone else's mind is what exactly is coming our way Saturday night? Snow, ice, rain? Short answer – probably all of the above.

All the weather forecasts generally agree that moisture will begin to feed into Southern New England early Saturday night, and with our colder air in place, that moisture will start off mainly as snow as temperatures fall into the mid 20s to lower 30s early Saturday night. However, as winds veer to the Southeast/South overnight into Sunday morning, temperatures will rise steadily into the lower to mid-40s across the higher terrain of Western Massachusetts, even into the lower 50s around Amherst and the Valley. How quickly the cold air is scooped out of colder inland locations will determine just how much precipitation falls as snow, sleet and/or freezing rain before changing over to all rain. This can differ even across Amherst, where colder pockets (like the areas around Puffer’s Pond) can stay icy long after the rest of the town is simply wet and rainy. The current Saturday to Sunday snowfall estimates are for 1-3 inches before the precipitation turns over to sleet and/or freezing rain. Freezing rain is the thing to watch out for, of course, particularly if the warm air takes a while to work in at ground level.

As the low pressure system lifts to the northeast on Sunday, most forecasters are looking for cold air to wrap back in during Sunday afternoon. And after that, look for things to get even colder (hey, stop complaining – it’s January and we live in New England!). Monday will be a lot like today, temperature-wise, but by Wednesday and Thursday low temperatures drop into the single digits overnight.