Mispredictions

Amherst has been shrouded in a thick fog all afternoon and evening, as the temperature and dew point have been hanging together around 46°F. The temperature is projected to climb into the low 50s by midnight, which should end the fog, but I’ll believe it when I see it. Nothing about this day is turning out as predicted by the professionals. At 9 am, with the “official” temperature listed at 44°F, my outdoor thermometer read 33°F – that’s more than a 10 degree difference! Could North Amherst be that much colder than the center of Amherst two miles south?  Seems highly unlikely. And did anyone actually experience that partially sunny day predicted on the “official” Weather Channel’s hour-by-hour rundown? And more to the point, what happened to the 57°F temps predicted for mid-day? Ultimately, the clouds never parted, the sun didn’t shine, the air didn’t heat up, and the temperature never got out of the mid-40s. As the fog wraps around the night, it’s hard to believe it will be “mostly sunny” tomorrow. The truth is, we just don’t know for sure. We may leave the house without an umbrella and get soaked. Or go on a scenic road trip and encounter walls of fog. But, ultimately, that’s part of what makes observing the weather so endlessly fascinating (especially around here). No matter how closely we observe or how expert we are, we are going to be wrong on a regular basis. And that’s a good thing – it keeps us humble, on guard, and frequently looking up and admiring the scenery.