Snowfall projections inching higher for Thursday storm

Storm Total Snow Forecast, through Friday, 2/14 at 7 am

The National Weather Service Skywarn office has just issued this rundown of tomorrow’s storm. Do I see numbers like 14” and 18” being bandied about as possible for our region?! You will notice that the Weather Service pays no attention to standard capitalization rules. 

(Note that information pertaining to Western MA is shown in boldface.)

Strong Coastal Storm/Nor'easter system will take aim on Southern New England Thursday Morning through Friday Morning with the potential for Heavy Snowfall for Western and Central New England, a Wintry Mix for portions of Eastern New England and Heavy Rainfall in Southeast New England. Strong to Damaging Winds also possible particularly along the coast.

A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 7 AM Thursday to 7 AM Friday for Southern New Hampshire, Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Worcester and Middlesex, Counties of Massachusetts for 6-12" of snow across Northern Connecticut through South-Central and Interior Northeast Massachusetts where sleet and freezing rain will mix in with ice accumulations of a tenth to quarter inch possible and 10-14" of snow with isolated higher amounts of up to 18" across Southern New Hampshire, and Northwest and North-Central Massachusetts where precipitation is expected to remain mostly or all snow.

A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from Thursday Morning through Friday Morning for Providence, Kent and Washington Counties of Rhode Island and Western Essex and Western Norfolk Counties of Massachusetts for 4-6" of snow before a changeover to rain. The Winter Storm Watch for Northern Bristol County Massachusetts has been canceled as the rain/snow line track has been shifted a bit further west.

Advisory level snowfall is possible in areas not covered by the Winter Storm Watch west of the Cape Cod Canal. Cape Cod and the Islands is currently expected to receive mostly rain from this system at the present time but strong to damaging winds are possible.

A storm system in the south-central and Southeast United States is on track and will continue to organize and make its way northeast and track towards Southern New England. The storm will likely bring significant snow accumulations to much of Southern New England with the potential for heavy rainfall in Southeast parts of the region and the threat of strong to damaging winds particularly at the coast. The trend has been for a storm track a bit closer to the coast which means the rain/snow line has been pushed a bit more inland but much of interior Southern New England is still expected to see significant snow and ice accumulations. In addition, some model trends have been stronger with the storm system and this could have an impact on the strength of the winds and models have trended heavier with precipitation as well so this will need to be monitored closely. Also, the storm will have a bit of duration to it with two maximas of heavy precipitation, one during mid-late Thursday Morning through mid-afternoon and then again later Thursday Evening into Friday Morning as the storm intensifies. The winds will also increase as we get into Thursday Evening into Friday Morning as well.

In Southern New Hampshire, Western, Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut, a widespread 6-14" of snow with the potential for a tenth to quarter inch of ice in Northern Connecticut through South-Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts are likely and 10-14" of snow with isolated higher amounts of up to 18" across Southern New Hampshire, and Northwest and North-Central Massachusetts where precipitation will be mostly or all snow.

A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Thursday Morning through Friday Morning for Western Norfolk, Middlesex and Western Essex Counties of Massachusetts through Providence, Kent and Washington Counties of Rhode Island It now appears that this area will receive 4-6" of snow before a change over to sleet, freezing rain and then plain rain. The Winter Storm Watch for Northern Bristol County Massachusetts has been canceled as it appears the rain/snow line will push through this area leaving advisory level snow in that area before a changeover to rain. There is the possibility of rain changing back to snow as the storm departs overnight Thursday into Friday Morning.

The snow has the potential to be heavy and wet and there will be areas where the precipitation will mix with sleet and freezing rain causing ice accumulations and there will be some strong winds in the interior as well. This may lead to isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages.

In areas west of the Cape Cod Canal through East Coastal and South Coastal Massachusetts not covered by the Winter Storm Watch, advisory level snowfall is possible before a changeover to rain. Across Cape Cod and the Islands, most of this storm event will be heavy rainfall. In areas of heavy rainfall, urban and poor drainage flooding may be possible.

Along East and South Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands, strong to damaging winds will be possible. The extent of the wind threat will be better defined in future forecasts. There is also the possibility of minor coastal flooding at the time of the Thursday Evening high tide along East Coastal Massachusetts. At this time, the coastal flood threat does not look as extensive as the early January 2014 blizzard.

The rain/snow line for this storm remains one of the most difficult parts of the forecast. It will likely be subject to the most revision for this storm event. Secondarily, the wind damage threat at the coast and the potential wind/wet snow damage threat inland will be aspects that will need to be monitored and revised depending on the track, speed and intensity of the storm. Current trends are for a stronger storm that tracks to near Cape Cod or Nantucket.