Wednesday, February 20, 2013

What NOAA Has to Say About This Weekend

I lifted the following weekend weather discussion right off the NOAA website. To be honest, one doesn't often see the word "eerie" in a NOAA weather discussion! Could this be another wild weekend? Only time will tell . . .

THE WEEKEND...
ALL EYES CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM THAT
MAY IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. 
ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...IT IS 
EERIE THAT ALL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS SYSTEM 
AND THAT THEY ARE FAIRLY CLOSE IN EXACT PLACEMENT/LOCATION/
TIMING. EVEN LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLES THEY ARE IN EXCELLENT 
AGREEMENT AS WELL...THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT 
A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IS POSSIBLE.

BOTH THE GFS/EC TRACK THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE BENCHMARK WITH 
THE GFS BEING A TAD MORE ROBUST. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS THAT
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. STILL TO
HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH AT THIS TIME AS THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM 
CAN STILL WOBBLE. BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MIXING ACROSS 
THE COAST AND COASTAL PLAIN...BUT AGAIN THIS CAN CHANGE 
DEPENDING ON EXACT TEMPS. BELIEVE MODELS ARE TOO WARM IN 
THEIR 2M TEMPS AS DYNAMIC COOLING WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR. EVEN 
THOUGH MIXING/RAIN WILL OCCUR ON THE COAST/COASTAL PLAIN...AS 
THE SYSTEM EXITS ON SUNDAY...THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE 
COMBINED WITH THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT 
SNOWFALL. CANNOT RULE OUT HEAVY WET SNOW WITH SNOWFALL RATES 
OF OVER 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT THIS TIME. TREE LIMBS AND POWER 
LINES ARE AT RISK IF THIS HEAVY WET SNOW COMES INTO FRUITION. 
AGAIN THESE ARE ALL POSSIBILITIES IF THE CURRENT TRACK OF THIS 
SYSTEM CONTINUES...YET WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE TRACK 
SHIFTS. COASTAL FLOODING RISK IS INCREASING AS IT APPEARS THAT 
THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW. MORE DETAILS BELOW. 
AGAIN THIS SYSTEM IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT...BUT HAVE 
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM. STAY TUNE FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.

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